I like the juxtaposition here between statistics and calculus (or causal explanations). Entrepreneurs are too frequently admonished to heed the stats, such as the alarmingly high failure rate of startups.

But entrepreneurs are operating, implicitly or explicitly, under an explanation for how they can solve problems. Those that do this well evolve their explanations over time, as reality redirects them, improving their “odds.”

I don’t think it’s much about the rewards or adventure (as you point out, the rewards are frequently modest and the “adventure” frequently a slog). It’s more about purpose: who else is going to solve your problem?

Thanks for your thoughtful article.